June 19th, 2013 — Uncategorized
With three games in the history books, the Stanley Cup Finals reaches the halfway point of possible games tonight. Each team has seen the other throw the best they have out there, each team has had players head down the tunnel and not come back.
While faceoffs are a key part of this, they aren’t the only component. The Blackhawks are not winning enough battles along the boards. They have plenty of big strong guys who should be able to go get the puck from smaller Bruins players like Ference, Marchand or Seguin, but we haven’t seen that. If you lose both the board battles and the faceoff war, you’re not going to win many games unless the other team has a truly bad goalie.
Passion versus Control:
Halfway through the first Kaspars Daugavins may have taken the stupidest penalty of the Bruins post season with a flagrant elbow he’s lucky didn’t see him sent to the dressing room. At the end of the third period of game three the nasty climbed out of the alleyways and onto the ice. Zdeno Chara and Bryan Bickell locked up and exchanged some leather and lather. Andrew Shaw and Brad Marchand went a little further and dropped the gloves before quickly joining them there.
Will we see a cleanly played series devolve into something where stupid penalties and reprisals break up the flow of the game. So far we’ve seen long periods of whistle free hockey, not just because of the abbreviated playoff rule book, but because both teams have played clean. If the emotional storm we saw in the fading minutes of game three continues, especially with frustration mounting for players like Toews who had a bit of a meltdown during the Red Wings series the penalty box could get quite cramped.
Rebounds and Follow Ups:
We’ve seen both goalies control a lot of the shots they face, when they haven’t that’s when we see goals. In game two, the first period goal on Rask was one that bounced off his glove twice in a sequence where he had to make five or six saves before allowing the goal. Game two didn’t see much in the way of rebounds, and even less of Blackhawks in the right spots to get to them.
As is often the case in the playoffs, it isn’t the star players doing most of the five on five scoring. This series has seen the Bruins new look third line of Paille-Kelly-Seguin has given the Blackhawks fit. It combines two of the Bruins three fastest forwards on the wings, and the solid passing, strong faceoff ability, and focused determination of Chris Kelly. If the Blackhawks have to pull Keith or Seabrook off of other duties to cover this line, it means they are likely opening up another can of worms.
At five on five, the Bergeron line has generated chances, but not much finish, likewise the Krejci line has had chances but little finish since Lucic’s two goals in game one. The Bruins need to take advantage of the Blackhawks relatively weak road game and perhaps send these two lines over the boards against different defensive pairs.
Injuries and Endurance:
We’ve seen Marian Hossa sit out a game, and Nathan Horton depart in overtime in this series. With thirteen periods of hard hitting, tight checking hockey played these two teams have already played more than four games of ice time against each other. We know neither of the two big bodied right wings is at 100%, we’ve also seen enough hits, bodies crashing into the boards or net, and simple fatigue to know there are likely to be two or three other players on each team who wouldn’t be playing if this were a regular season game.
The shell game Quenneville played with the Hossa injury and the Smith substitution can probably fill in one or two names for us there. For the Bruins, if we see Daugavins back in the lineup after some pretty poor play, you can’t help but wonder what type of shape Jordan Caron and the other black aces are in.
June 7th, 2013 — Uncategorized
This has actually been a great series to watch, as long as you aren’t a Penguins fan or hadn’t wagered heavily on them. There’s been a high scoring game, laugher goals, big hits, player tantrums, scrums, guts on display and high paced hockey for five periods in a row. Unfortunately if you do favor the Penguins they’ve come up short with a single good effort and two bad ones.
Which Penguins team shows up? If it is the version from game two, this series will be over in all but the final details of the records by the middle of the first period. If the team that showed up for game three takes the ice, there is a solid chance the Consol Energy Center will get another home game.
Is there something wrong with Adam McQuaid? He played over five minutes less than rookie Torey Krug during the 95 minute long game three and was part of the parade down the tunnel. He and Krug have been a solid pair, and if he is out or ineffective the reshuffling of pairs might result in some weak spots in the armor of the Bruins being exposed.
Do even the hardest of the blowhards believe the meltdown this series has been is primarily Dan Bylsma’s fault? He could have made some better choices, and not shuffling the lineup after game one would have, for example, shown some poise and confidence. For that matter not putting Tyler Kennedy a proven postseason performer is highly curious, but there are about 24 or 25 other people at ice level who have been a bigger detriment to the team.
Will any Penguin’s player show up and impose more of their will on the game than Deryk Engelland? The 194th pick of the 2000 draft has thrown the body with a will, passion and precision that has likely made him the best Penguin through three games. He’s the only player to even try to consistently play physically against Lucic and Horton. As one of the lowest paid players on the Penguins roster, he’s got to be the only man on the team who can look himself in the eyes and say he’s earned his money.
Will this be Jagr’s game to score? It has to happen eventually, and being the player to put his old team away would be fitting.
Which teams stars will have the biggest impact on the game? To date Crosby and Malkin have had a very poor series. Letang’s series can probably best be described with the use of two to three of the “seven deadly words”. But the Bruins stars aren’t immune to bad games, Rask single-handedly gave the Ranger game 4, the Krejci, Horton, Lucic line have been known to make horrific line changes or turnovers. Or it could be a dazzling performance from Jarome Iginla, or Zdeno Chara, maybe Tyler Seguin or Matt Niskanen is able to seize the the game and take it over?
June 1st, 2013 — Yes really
For this drinking game you’ll need two beverages. You mght want to pick drinks mathing your favorite team colors or just the two nearest things you can handle in volume.
Take One Sip:
- Every time scoring chances are mentioned.
- An opponent of from the previous round is mentioned.
- Jarome Iginla and Matt Bartkowski are mentioned in the same sentence.
- The cameras pan the crowd or the guy between the benches instead of a scrum.
- You know what a coach/player is going to say in an interview before they say it.
- Either team gets a five on three powerplay.
- Don Cherry makes more sense than anyone else the camera has been aimed at in the last ten minutes.
- If the trade deadline is mentioned.
- If Jagr’s time in Pittsburg is mentioned.
- If any mention is made of the number of Stanley Cup wins a players has.
- If the Nathan Horton vs Jarome Iginla fight is shown.
- A goaltending change is made.
- A pending UFA is mentioned.
- A full period passes where you don’t hear the name of the junior and or college team any player was drafted from.
- Anyone says a team is or isn’t getting bounces.
- The broadcast fails to show a faceoff but cuts in when the puck is already in motion.
- Two commericals for the smae company play in one commercial break.
- A period ends with more than a 10 shot difference between the teams.
Take One Sip:
- If Chara’s size is mentioned.
- If any of Crosby’s past injuries are mentioned.
- If a backup goaltender is shown.
- If either Coach is shown standing on the bench.
- Someone on sicial media says the offials are biased.
- Someone dangles so much they lose the puck with no one with no help from opposing players.
- James Neal or Tyler Seguin miss high and hit the glass with a shot.
- The broadcaster between the benches asks the guy(s) in the booth if they saw something going on in the game.
- Someone mentiones “line shuffling”.
- Any rookie is pointed out (Simone Despres and Beau Bennett for the Penguins, Torey Krug, Dougie Hamilton, Matt Bartkowski for the Bruins).
- A general manager or owner is shown.
- A fairly routine hockey play (faceoff win, goal, or saucer pass, etc) is described as “wizardy” or magic.
- The Bruins powerplay scores in a game.
- The Penguins get a shorthanded goal.
- A too many men penalty is called.
- A penalty is called that makes no sense.
- Matt Cooke’s hit on Marc Savard is mentioned.
Double Fist (1 sip of each)
- If the playoff win total of a coach is mentioned.
- Trades between the teams are mentioned.
- The age of a player or players are mentioned in relation to how long its been since the teams last played in the playoffs.
- The regular season series is mentioned.
- Any player is mentiond for a past award or current nomination.
- An obvious rule is explained for no reason.
- Some says the refs have swallowed their whistle.
- The compressed schedule in the regular season is mentioned.
- Everytime there’s an obvious dive that goes uncalled.
- If there is a fight where the combined salary is more than four million dollars.
- Players or officials are said to be sending a message.
Skip a drink if:
- You find yourself unable to scream coherently at a pinkhat.
- You start explaining a simple rule like “icing” and take longer than two minutes.
- You can’t remember which beverage to drink from.
- Both fourth lines are on the ice.
- A family member, girlfriend or spouse of a player is shown in the audience.
You can seriously injury yourself, destroy property, or even die even if your participation in this drinking game is nothing more than water. If you should happen to do something incredibly idiotic and entertaining during this drinking game that makes it to Youtube, TextsFromLastNight or other fun sites; do send a link. It won’t make your life better, but I’ll get a laugh too. No one is responsible for the stupid you commit but you.
Feel free to tweet @PuckSage as you play.
May 31st, 2013 — Uncategorized
The Boston Bruins and Pittsburgh Penguins will square off in a best of seven series for the right to earn those final four wins against a western conference foe.
For the Pittsburgh Penguins, Malkin, and Crosby will try and aid newcomer Neal, and grizzled veterans Iginla, and Morrow in earning there way into the history books. The offence of the Penguins is without a doubt the best left in the playoffs. The Penguins can ice three lines of players who on many teams would be the top threat. Iginla is likely a first ballot hall of fame inductee, and no one is going to name him first as the teams premiere offensive player.
The Boston Bruins are strongest at the other end of the ice. Zdeno Chara a former Norris trophy winner remains the NHL’s measuring stick for shutdown defense, and all others come up lacking. He’s aided by Seidenberg who’s journeyman career took the step up to mastery when he pulled on the spoked B. Behind them are rookie sensations Bartkowski, Krug and Hamilton, and the often overlooked Masterson Nominee Adam McQuaid, and veteran Boychuk of the booming shot and shot blocking. The likely starting defense of Chara, Seidenberg, Boychuk, McQuaid Bartkowski, and Krug is intimidating enough having dismantled the Rangers, behind them are Ference who one a Cup with the Bruins, and Reddem who was with Chara part of that smothering Senator’s defense a few years ago.
The point where both teams are likely to fail is in net. Neither netminder has played this deep in the playoffs. Last season, and the season before neither was a number one goaltender. Rask had a meltdown against the Flyers that will forever live in infamy. Vokouns previous most winning post season campaign had grand and sweeping total of two wins. Neither goalie has proven anything. If you are ranking each teams strengths from greatest to least the Penguins will have scoring, defense and goaltending in that order. The Bruins will list defense, offence and goaltending. Worse for each team is the unreliable nature of their backups. Khudobin has performed admirably as a backup for Rask, but the only reason Vokoun is playing at all is the goalie he normally backs up had a complete meltdown against the New York Islanders. The bottom line: don’t expect many 1-0, 2-1 games.
May 1st, 2013 — Uncategorized
Welcome to the Second Season, unlike most years, the second season for the best teams will run nearly half the length of the regular season.
#1 vs. #8
The Pittsburgh Penguins marched determinedly through the regular season, attempting to keep pace with the western powers. Malkin, Crosby, Letang and other key players all missed games due to injury. Crosby is out least for game one, and Jarome Iginla will be playing in the post season for the first time in almost half a decade.
The Islanders haven’t seen the post season in so long you have to wonder how many members of the staff at Nassau had vaction plans this week and next. Sixteen players will be making their playoff debut, including nearly all of their key forwards, and several of their battered blueliners. From the blueline, only three gentlemen appeared in all 48 games this season; Mark Streit age 35, Andrew MacDonald, and 22 year old Travis Hamonic who’s in his third season for the Islanders.
Players to watch:
With Crosby out, the cameras may actually grace other Penguins, Neal is a human highlight reel, Brandon Sutter is finally making himself comfortable in the NHL, and Chris Kunitz quietly led the team in goals in the regular season.
For the Islanders if you aren’t already a member of the United Temple of Taveres; get familiar. The 2009 #1 overall has outpaced his class across the board, he’s got 20 more goals than the second place goal scorer from his class, and almost three times as many as 4th place. On the backend Vishnovsky and Streit are more than capable of being momemtum changers in any zone.
The Penguins should win this series. But that depends on Marc Andre Fleury turning in a useful playoff performence. In the last three years his sv% has been awful, despite reasonable regular season numbers, .834, .899, .891 are useful but only for making sure your team gets plenty of sun. The Islanders have a chance if Nabokov can out duel The Flower.
#2 vs. #7
The Montreal Canadiens had a wretched season last year, and reaped the draft rewards, American rookie Alex Galchenyuk made an instant impact, Vancouver Giants alumni Brendan Gallagher did as well. They’ve had a small downturn since Alexi Emelin injured himself, but they still held on to win the last Northeast division title.
The Ottawa Senators are probably glad they don’t have to make room on the plane for medical records. Overcoming injuries have defined this team this season. Jason Spezza is still out, Erik Karlsson is just back, and the list of who didn’t play all or most games is much longer than the list of those who did.
Players to watch:
P.K. Subban is the most electrifying player in this series, and possibly on all of the Canadian teams, Lars Eller has shown a willingness to get his nose dirty, and Michael Ryder still has one of the fastest releases in the NHL.
For the Senators, Alfredsson isn’t a player you should ever take your eyes off of, Kyle Turris led the team in goals and points, and Gonchar is still a consistent threat.
Offensively the difference between these teams is night and day, the Canadiens had the fifth best offense in the regular season, and the Senators the fourth worst. On the other hand the Senators finished second in goals against, while the Canadiens were a pedestrian 14th. Craig Anderson has better post season numbers, and should be able to snatch a game or two, but the Habs should win it.
#3 vs. #6
When it comes to winning the Southeast Division, the Washington Capitals have had that locked down for most of its existance, it seems only fitting they should finish its last season on top. Unfortunately, that’s all they seem to be able to win. Maybe this year with a rejuvinated Ovechkin, a mature Carlson and Alzner, and most miraculously a healthy Green they can turn in a good performence.
Last year the New York Rangers went to the Eastern Conference finals, and but for the skill of Adam Henrique, might have gone further. Some might consider it a problem when their 12th best paid forward leads the team in scoring, especially when that player makes roughly 10% of their highest paid forward, for the Rangers, that’s just the way things are.
Players to watch:
The Caps bost a potent offense, and a bit more grit than they are given credit for, Troy Brouwer was second in goals this season, Chimera had a big season last year, and Backstrom has finally started to round back into All Star form.
While Stepan led the Rangers in scoring, Richards, Nash and Callahan have got to be due for an offensive explosion at some point, right?
#4 vs. #5
The Boston Bruins had a heap of distractions towards the end of the season with bombings, blizzards and forever long pregame ceremonies, which might excuse their poor play if it hadn’t been a season long occurance. The positives for the Bruins are that they are pretty healthy physically. The negative is that no one knows where their collective head is.
The Maple Leafs are making their return to the playoffs. Lots of this team hasn’t played in the playoffs at all, and some who have aren’t all that good in the second season. Lupul and Van Riemsdyk have the most playoff experience, Kessel is a point per game player in the playoffs, but he’ll have to get over his ineffectiveness against Chara and Boston in a hurry to keep that going.
Players to watch:
For the Bruins, everyone is waiting on Soderberg to make his impact felt, but he may well sit, watch Bergeron per usual, and see if Ference and Lucic can keep up their snarl.
The Maple Leafs have woefully underused Grabovski this season, and he might just be the key to winning this series, Kadri and Gunnarsson should also be in your crosshairs.
The Bruins played poorly down the stretch, but the Leafs are new as a team to the playoffs, and have a bug in their heads about the Bruins. Expect a lot of physical play and for the team that wants it more to win.
March 31st, 2013 — Yes really
This season the Buffalo Sabres were expected by many to challenge for the very last Northeast Division title. The Boston Bruins were expected by most to fight like hell to win the division again. So far the Sabres have fired a head coach, declared open season on their roster, and wallowed around the bottom of the division and conference. The Bruins have missed out on acquiring future hall of fame inductee Jarome Iginla, traded away a world class goaltender the front office alienated, and had the decided displeasure of a rear view on the Montreal Canadien’s for much of the season.
You can seriously injury yourself, destroy property, or even die even if your participation in this drinking game is nothing more than water. If you should happen to do something incredibly idiotic and entertaining during this drinking game that makes it to Youtube, TextsFromLastNight or other fun sites; do send a link. It won’t make your life better, but I’ll get a laugh too. No one is responsible for the stupid you commit but you. Enjoy!
Take 1 Drink Whenever:
- Lindy Ruff is mentioned
- Jordan Leopold or other former members of the Sabres are mentioned.
- The word “lethargic” is applied to either team.
- The size of Zdeno Chara, Tyler Myers, Nathan Gerbe, or Tyler Ennis is mentioned.
Take 2 Drinks Whenever:
- Sidney Crosby is mentioned.
- Jarome Iginla is mentioned.
- An announcer uses “shakeup” in discussing either teams problems.
- The Lucic/Miller collision is mentioned.
- Someone says they don’t like an officials call.
Take 3 Drinks Whenever:
- Someone mentions players needing to wear visors or full cages.
- Ryan Clowe is mentioned on tv, twitter or radio in connection with the Bruins.
- Someone says “fire sale”, “wholesale changes”, or “rebuild” about the Sabres.
- John Scott skates more than 2:25 seconds in a period.
Take 4 Drinks Whenever:
- Game of Thrones is mentioned or alluded to.
- Someone makes a trade deadline prediction.
- Peter Chiarelli or Darcy Regier are mentioned or shown on tv.
- There is a mention of any teams scouts.
- Between periods.
- Whenever Mike Milbury makes the least sense in an intermission.
- Whenever Doc goes more than four minutes of game play without using; knife, stab, or pitchfork.
- If Patrick Kaleta, Andrew Ference, John Scott or Shawn Thornton score a goal.
Skip a drink;
- You start to have faith the Sabres will make the playoffs.
- You think the Bruins will fall out of the playoffs.
- You think Liam McHugh is funny.
- Greg Campbell wins a fight.
February 9th, 2013 — Uncategorized
The Washington Capitals are in last place in the NHL. The Columbus BlueJackets who shipped out Rick Nash over the summer are ahead of them. The New York Islanders who struggle to hit the salary cap floor are in playoff position. The Washington Capitals with one of the highest salaries in the NHL have the worst goal differential, sit in last, and worse do so in a division that has been widely regarded as the weakest division in the NHL for a decade.
Current General Manager George McPhee has been with the club since 1997. During that time, despite numerous high draft picks, the Capitals have not achieved as much under his leadership as they did in the past. Since McPhee took charge of the team they have never made it out of the Conference, most years they don’t even make it past the first round. This despite having had incredibly potent offenses year in and year out.
Over the sixteen years of GMGM’s tenure six coaches have been named. Ron Wilson who has had success elsewhere, Bruce Boudreau who probably spent more time trying to figure out the fastest way to get to his new office than he did looking for a job when he was relieved of his duties in Washington, Dale Hunter of major junior’s model franchise the London Knights, who after sixty games and a playoff round won bid sweet adieu to McPhee’s house of madness.
In drafting they’ve had both good and bad, but the bad certainly outweighs the good. Under McPhee, they’ve cashed in on can’t miss first round talents like Alex Ovechkin, Alex Semin, John Carlson, Carl Alzner and Nicklas Backstrom. It’s hard to say that that missed on the top end of the draft. Sure things that any of them were, its not hard to see how this could be conflated with general draft success. But taking a look a bit deeper in the draft shows the McPhee administration has done little more than cash big checks made out in their name and delivered by courier directly to their hands.
Real draft success isn’t just what you get in the first round. Take a look at the Vancouver Canucks, like the Caps nearly all their most impactful players are from the first round. When they faced off against the Bruins, they had little in the way of grit, plenty of skill but aside from Bieksa and Kesler, nothing and no one who knew what adversity was or how to overcome it. The Washington Capitals have added players who have both grit and ability, but no impact players with it.
The Los Angeles Kings, like the Pittsburgh Penguins before them, turned to Rob Scuderi to help out their blueline, and the delivered to the tune of nearly 22 minutes a night through the playoffs. Where’s the gritty cornerstone for the Caps? More importantly, where’s the stability behind the bench to point out that person as a rock and roll model and take push other players to be more like them.
Coaches aren’t alone in being run out of town on a rail. Alex Semin spent two years in the KHL, likely in part to avoid the scapegoating for all the teams ills that became the norm that saw him depart the team for a second time, on this occasion signing with division rivals the Carolina Hurricanes. Then Captain Chris Clark was traded during the 2009 season, in fact he was dumped to the bottom feeding Columbus BlueJackets. Then Captain Jeff Halpern was allowed to walk away in free agency. In all there have been seven captains of the Washington Capitals during the reign of George McPhee. In the same time period the Los Angeles Kings have had three, the Montreal Canadiens have had three, and even the Boston Bruins who are on their fifth general manager since McPhee took office have only had three captains.
What has taken place for many of the last sixteen years in Washington has been shuffling the deck chairs as the ship sinks. The guys on the ice don’t play like a team. Sure Chimera and Ward are guys who get it done and leave nothing on the ice unless it’s blood and teeth, but they’re not going to get the team to a championship by themselves.
Ovechkin who has been played on his off wing is the current scapegoat. People are saying he doesn’t care (after years of complaining he enjoyed goals being scored too much) and yet in addition to his thirty plus goals a season, he puts his body on the line to well over 200 hits a season a number about 50 higher per than Shea Weber and eclipsing Zdeno Chara as well. Additionally, year over year his blocked shots count has climbed steadily. While it is doubtful that Ovechkin will be shortlisted for the Selke award anytime soon, it is worth noting his blocked shot totals have been comparable to Jonathan Toews, who plays a lot more short handed than does Ovechkin, meaning that Alex is doing more at five on five than he’s being given credit for in some circles.
The question for Ted Leonsis isn’t what player or coach is failing him. The question isn’t even if the person currently assembling all the bits and bobbles is capable of creating a winner, that answer is readily apparent. What the Capitals owner needs to query himself and his advisors over is what to do with the man who has had far longer than most general managers to produce and not only failed to do so, but failed to recognize the underlying problems with his own system. Whoever follows McPhee, and for Caps fans, may it be soon, will have a huge task to shoulder.
January 28th, 2013 — Uncategorized
The short answer to all questions of player value is: What ever they can get someone to pay for them. In this case, Subban is what every team needs and wants: a highly talented, mobile, young defender with offensive skill, defensive savvy, and his best years ahead of him.
Q: So where does he rank in terms of both actual skill, and potential:A: In my book, top ten for NHL defensemen.
In whatever order you like, you can put Chara, Keith, Weber, Pietrangelo, Suter, Doughty ahead of him. The next tier of his true comparables is harder to gauge as that group has more and variability in strengths and weaknesses as well as age. That group includes the Capitals John Carlson, the Jets Dustin Byfugelien, Chicago’s Brent Seabrook, Canucks blueliner Kevin Bieksa, and when used properly, Jay Bouwmeester of the Flames.
Of his comparables:
- John Carlson is the closest in age and accomplishments, Carlson is better defensively, Subban is a little faster and better offensively. Carlson is also 23 and signed a team friendly pretty fair contract with a cap hit of four million a year in a town where he was at the time about the sixth or seventh biggest name.
- Kevin Bieksa is the oldest of his comparables, is the fifth or so biggest name behind Kesler, the Sedins and whichever goalies the press is hectoring between pillar and post out in Vancouver. No Cup for Bieksa, but one of the NHL’s more dependable blueliners and is not the type to give up even if a game is out of hand. He’s got a talent laden blueline around him and has for years, not a natively gifted offensively, but knows where he fits in on his offensive minded team. Cap hit of $4.6 million.
- Jay Bouwmeester was when he signed his current contract with the floundering Panthers about the most talented player and arguably the biggest name on the team. He plays huge minutes including more than two minutes a night on each special team. He blocks over 100 shot each year. His cap hit is $6.8m
- Brent Seabrook is often overlooked in Chicago even if a good look at the numbers doesn’t bear that out. Skilled going in both directions, Seabrook would be the cornerstone of a lot of franchises in the NHL. He has similar offensive numbers, on a more offensively gifted team, to Subban. Was a big part of the Cup run for Chicago a couple years back. 5.8million.
- Dustin Byfuglien is the Jets most sizeable defeneman, played his part in hoisting the cup for the windy city, and aside from some injury issues has been a dynamic player since landing in Atlanta-now-Winnipeg. Less defensive acuity than Subban, just as good a skater with a lot more size, and possibly the best known player on his team. His cap hit is 5.2million.
A couple of contracts his agent is sure to bring up:
- Erik Karlsson, who was mysteriously awarded the Norris, has almost negative defensive ability, and a contract for a $6.8 million cap hit, despite never making it out of the first round of the playoffs and playing a very soft game.
- Dennis Wideman, the wildly inconsistent 29 year old now on his fifth NHL team was an All Star last season, carries a 5.25m cap hit, and no team he’s played for has ever made it out of the second round of the playoffs.
- Dion Phaneuf who is one of those guys who was billed as the second coming of god in his early years, and is still picked for a Norris yearly buy some pundits has a large cap hit at 6.5million, but hasn’t seen a playoff game since 2009 and has been above average if not elite for the Toronto Maple Leafs since arriving.
If you crunch the numbers on his true comparables and leave out the laughably overpaid Karlsson, the Semin-level-enigma that is Wideman, and Phanuef, you’ve got an average cap hit of 5,280,000. That’s not really an unfair number for a short term contract, but realistically with only modest improvement in the next three years he should be in the running for legitimate Norris win, and a couple 50+ point seasons.
If your considering an offer sheet or trade for Subban, what does a roughly five point three million dollar contract offer sheet cost? That depends on where you expect to draft, and how well you’ve done drafting. For any amount in the price range of his comparables, assuming Montreal doesn’t match it, you’d be giving up selections in each of the first three rounds of the draft.
If you expect to draft in the top 10 this year, it might not be worth it.
If you expect to draft 11-20, you have to consider it very, very strongly.
If you expect to draft 21-30 this season you’re probably derelict in your duty if you don’t.
An immediate impact player, especially at a reasonable price and especially long term (four+ seasons) is better than potential that is years away. If as an organization you think Subban is the player that can put you over the top for a cup win, or even just generate enough buzz to sell 3000 more tickets a game you almost have to go for him via offer sheet or trade. If you’re in the division you can doubly impact the Habs by lowering their level of talent and improving yours. As poorly as the Habs have drafted in the last decade, them muffing on the draft is almost a given.
January 21st, 2013 — Uncategorized
The end of the lockout brought more uncertainty than we are used to seeing at this time of year in the NHL. What we would get going into games was anyones guess. Sure a little more chaos than expected, but out of the swirl of bodies, we can already begin to extract some very important data.
- There will be soft tissue tweaks: groin pulls, sprains and similar minor injuries galore.
- Expect aggression. Expect it all the time. Players are in general healthier, stronger, and fitter than they have been in years. Guys like Doan, Hossa, Keith, Chara and other minute munchers who play big minutes have had three extra months to heal. Doan, St Louis, and Chara not only don’t have the drawn look they’ve shown in recent years they’re missing the circles under the eyes and are moving with a bounce and verve that you haven’t seen from them in four or five years.
- Streaks will define seasons. With just forty eight games to be played, a six or seven game losing streak is all that it will take to fall behind permanently. A seven or eight game goal scoring streak will be enough to make a player’s season.
- Save percentages will be lower than in recent league history. With so few of the NHL’s goalies having played at all since last April, or in some cases even before then, the first eight or ten games are really their training camp. Those first few games of practice will be much magnified in their season statistics.
- Powerplay’s will be worse. Like tracking the puck, the systems teams use to make powerplays work will take time to get into sync. Obviously some teams have better shooters than others, but their teammates still have to recognize when shooters are open and get them the puck in time.
- Bigger than expected seasons from guys injured late in the year, and in the playoffs should be expected. These guys had to work hard to rehab during the lockout, and most of them probably didn’t wind down even when it looked like we wouldn’t have a season.
- You will see your team play 25-27 players minimum this season. Any minor injury that could be made worse will get a guy time off if the team thinks its a good idea. This extra evaluation for AHL guys could lead to a more active trade deadline.