In the last dozen years the hockey world has seen the advent of dozens of statistics used to measure everything in half a dozen ways. We have a dozen different forms of Corsi, there’s PDO, and goals against per 60, and points for by strength, by period, and per game. We have a proliferation of ways to count how much each player interacts with other players on the ice and make pointed observations as to how two or so players together enhance or detract from each other.

I love information more than most people. If I could drink it, I’d put down a couple gallons a day and still be looking for more. But some statistics are just plain worthless. Some are of very limited use. Corsi for example is a reasonable way to judge teams in the regular season, but recent history has shown it to be a counter indicator in the playoffs. Should it be discarded? Should it be evaluated further? No, it shouldn’t be eliminated, but weighing it as heavily as it has been the last few years is clearly not a winning strategy. PDO, is one of those statistics that is somewhere between vaporware and a clock with a short circuit and hasn’t stopped, but isn’t keeping time properly.

But neither of those is reason for today’s writing session. (It’s not even that my schedule has been eaten in the past week and I didn’t get to the other three posts I wanted to write.) Today is about two other purportedly linked stats: Giveaways and takeaways. Even more than hits, far more than blocked shots, and laughably more inconsistent than plus/minus this pair of stats is both inconsistently kept within a given arena, and across the league.

If you squint just right, you can see a loose connection between giveaways and ice time. Even players who normally have a firm leash on the puck like Patrice Bergeron and Shea Weber will pile up giveaways as a result of having the puck a lot.  But takeaways? What are they using to count those? I’ve watched players like Weber, Vlasic, and Seidenberg snuff a rush, take the puck and pass it off for a counter attack twice in a shift and end the night without a single takeaway. This is a long term, endemic problem the NHL has in the way statistics are kept.

If we’re to believe the official NHL statistics then Jeff Skinner, Mitch Marner, and Filip Forsberg all had as many takeaways or more as the four time Selke winner Patrice Bergeron last year.

And that’s a statistic that just doesn’t pass the sniff test.

We are 10% into the season, and it is time to take a look at what is going on with the organization.

Heading into today’s games the Boston Bruins are:

  • 5th in the division
  • 3rd in the East’s wild card race
  • 16th in goals for
  • 15th in goals against
  • -5 in goal differential
  • 30th on the pp with 7.1% success rate
  • 10th on the PK with an 85.3% success rate
  • tied for 5th in faceoff win percentage at 51.7%st

They have used four different goalies, and 22 skaters.

By salary the top forwards without goals are:

  • David Krejci $7.25m
  • Matt Beleskey $3.8m
  • Jimmy Hayes $2.3m

The three together are a minus 18, $13.35m in salary, 56 shifts of hockey a game, and just 33 shots on goal through eight games each.

So what do we know now that we didn’t know September first? We know Brandon Carlo has shown himself to be a pretty solid NHL defenseman in this small sample. We know that Jimmy Hayes and Matt Beleskey on the same line still doesn’t work. We know that despite the extraordinary (for him) trust Julien has put in Carlo and earlier in O’Gara, he’s still not ready to shelve Liles for Morrow or one of the other youngsters in need of ice time. To date, Liles appears to have been the most culpable defenseman on the ice for a greater number of goals against than any other blueliner. Honestly, this is starting to remind me of Hnidy’s second tour through Boston. If Morrow, O’Gara, or Grzelcyk, can’t handle the time in what is clearly a bridge year, they’ll probably never handle it.

Liles plays third pairing minutes, and has averaged less time than Colin Miller this year. His powerplay time could easily be handed out among Krug, Chara, Morrow, or O’Gara who are all left handed shots as well. And as effective as the current powerplay isn’t you can make the argument putting a goalie out their in his place would be more effective. The most dispensable part of his game is his PK time, where the team is doing above average if not well, and even there in the time he was in Boston rookie Rob O’Gara averaged more shorthanded time. I don’t know how much say Julien has over who is on his roster and in the locker room, but for the long term good of the team developing a quality defenseman over allowing an aging veteran to playout their contract should win every time. That’s a call management should make, and should make firmly.

In summary:

Problems on defense that aren’t quite as bad as I feared coming into the season. Problems at forward that are worse than I feared, and a lack of health and experience in net. Not a compelling total, but this is just 10% of the season.

Since it doesn’t appear that Martin Brodeur is going to fade off into the sunset and enjoy the numerous accolades he so richly deserves just yet, the question becomes where can he go play?

We’ll start with some basic assumptions:

  1. He wants to play or a team who is going to win at least half their games as is.
  2. He wants to play for a team who might not have a legitimate number one goaltender.
  3. He wants to be penciled in for for 25-30 starts minimum to start the season.
  4. He wants to hit 700 wins, this year.
  5. A defensive system that favors goaltending is the ideal landing spot.

Those five points eliminate a lot of teams. Towards the top of the heap the Kings, Rangers, Bruins, and towards the bottom the Hurricanes, Panthers, Flames, Oilers and not a few more.

The one place where there is both a need and a fit is the Saint Louis Blues. Brian Elliott has done well splitting starts. Jake Allen has one strong AHL season under his belt. Neither has ever proven themselves to be the goaltender that can go out and play fifty five or sixty games and come out with a winning record and strong individual statistics.

If you look above ice level the need grows even more pronounced. General Manager Doug Armstrong and Head Coach Ken Hitchcock have been in place since 2010 and 2011 respectively, and have only made it out of the first round once, that was in the first year. That is not the upward trajectory that keeps people managers and coaches employed in the NHL. Two out of the three years of Hitchcocks tenure as coach they have finished in the bottom half of the playoff teams in goals against. In his career Brian Elliott has a playoff save percentage of .898 and a GAA of 2.55 in 18 games.

Martin Brodeur has almost as many playoff games played as Elliott does regular season games, and stands up wit a career .919 sv% and 2.02 GAA, his last playoff appearance was the New Jersey Devils run to Stanley Cup Finals 24 games played .917sv%.

This is a textbook case of when to bring in a ringer to make a deep run, possibly even a cup win. Brodeur is a good mentor, he’s won the Stanley Cup before. He knows his time is very, very, limited and given the current roster and how much more some of them will need to be paid in two years, the teams window isn’t much wider. If Brodeur signs for about a million for one season, this could be a marriage made in heaven, if if its just for one year.