The Ottawa Senators are for sale.

No, not the organization just the roster. And man do they need help. It isn’t just the NHL roster that is lacking in depth, talent, and winning drive. Their AHL affiliate the Bellville Senators are near the bottom of that league as well. Without a first or second round pick this year, and a third round pick next year, this team can not afford to move players and not get solid returns.

Given the questionable ability of the organization to draft and develop players, a case can be made for the team to trade exclusively for roster players and prospects who would be in the NHL if it weren’t for their current rights holder having salary cap issues. I don’t know that this is a good idea, but with the number of NHL players on teams well outside the playoffs who might be able to help the organization going forward it isn’t an idea that can be dismissed entirely.

While everyone else is analyzing if the organization should move on from Erik Karlsson, and what they can get for him, I’ll stick to some of the players who have value as depth players, or to fill in for a top six/top four player who is expected to be out for an extended period.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau is a sneaky good depth forward. Last year he produced 19 goals in the regular season and then eight more in the Senator’s playoff appearance. He produces at even strength, and on the penalty kill. Any team needing either a 3rd center or first pairing penalty kill forward will get a good value. Value: 2nd round pick plus, likely a 2nd and a lesser pick or prospect.

Mark Borowiecki overshadowed by both Karlsson and Phanuef on this roster. His raw physicality will lead some to overlook his skating ability, a good comparison is Boston’s Kevan Miller. Value: This one is tricky, he’s got a team friendly contract, two more years on it, but is never going to be even a middling points producer. A 3rd or 4th round pick would seam fair but I could see him going for more.

Mike Hoffman. I think the Ottawa Senator’s organization would be fools to trade him, but he is undoubtedly a quality goal scorer able to produce his own offense in a system with limited assistance. He’s under contract for next season as well. Value: 1st round pick plus additional return.

Johnny Oduya: May end up as a throw in with a bigger name, might go somewhere looking for a veteran who has been there and done that. He’s not going to come in a play top pairing minutes, but veteran defensemen are valued above the purely on ice contribution, particularly ones who have been as far into the playoffs as he has. Value: will likely fetch a 2nd or a lesser prospect.

Mark Stone is quietly having a good season for the Senators, and will like getting a significant raise on July 1. With 18 goals already on a team that’s subpar and coached defense first, he’s going to generate some interest. Value: This will depend entirely on if he is just traded as a rental or if there is a signing involved in the move. A pair of second round picks say 2018 and 2020 would be a nice return.

Derick Brassard on the plus side has already matched last year’s goal total, on the minus side he’s not young any more and a $2,500,000 signing bonus just for living until bonus day might slow down the clamor the talents of the soon to be 31 year old Quebec native. Value: Roster player (either expiring contract or need for need) and a pick.

Mika Zibanejad has been traded from the Ottawa Senators to the New York Rangers in exchange for Derick Brassard.

One could look at the pure offensive numbers and decide that trade just doesn’t make sense. Brassard has averaged more goals over the last three seasons, he plays more physically, and has garnered a wealth of playoff experience.

A deeper look may give a more compelling answer.

Zibanejad is:

  • Several years younger
  • Larger
  • Right shot
  • A bit over $2.25m cheaper this season
  • An RFA after this year
  • Slightly better at faceoffs
  • Productive on the penalty kill

Brassard is:

  • A better faceoff playoff man
  • More productive in the post season
  • Cost surety for this and two more season for the budget Senators
  • A left shot
  • Better on the powerplay

When you come right down to it the two are very similar in goals, points, zone starts vs zone finishes (despite Zibanejad playing more PK), PDO, the on-ice Corsi favors Zibanejad slightly, but the biggest difference after money, term, and age seems to be the penalties drawn and taken per 60. Zibanejad takes less penalties, and draws more than twice as many as well. I don’t discount the handedness, and youth, but from the Ranger’s perspective they seem to be a big factor, along with cash. Maybe they have something else in the works?

From the Ottawa standpoint, the trade may just be about adding veteran leadership and playoff experience. The difficulty in getting free agents to sign in Ottawa, Chris Kelly being the exception that proves the rule, is almost certainly a major factor as well. The Senators have shed an almost certain doubling (or more) of Zibanejad’s current salary and get to put a similar guy on the roster who is from not so very far away in Hull where he was born, if he likes playing at home, they may well be able to extend him at the end of his current contract.

Is this a “hockey trade”, not likely. Is this a bad trade for what either team needs over the next two seasons; equally unlikely.

For the second year in a row, the Metropolitan is the weakest division in hockey and it isn’t even close. Some teams are better than last year, others are worse, and anyone who tells you what the others will do is just a bit out of their mind.

Top shelf:

New York Rangers

The Rangers are a safe bet for the playoffs and likely for the division title as well. Lundqvist will be entering the season with a quality backup, and most of the key players in front of him healthy. Despite an injury to top center Stepan that will keep him until around Halloween, the Rangers have otherwise good health up and down the lineup, McDonaugh, Staal, Girardi on the backend, St. Louis, Nash, Brassard and Hagelin up front will do the heavy lifting for the team again.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Like the Rangers, the Blue Jackets have a high quality goalie, this one who just happens to be in a contract year. They also have an underrated defense group. Jack Johnson, Ryan Murphy, James Wisniewski and the rest will contribute at both ends of the ice. The forward group is unheralded as well, Brandon Dubinsky rarely gets the recognition he deserves, Scott Hartnell is a legitimate scoring threat who should be entering the season with something to prove. If Johansen can be signed, and retained, and Horton can have a healthy season, this team is going to be more than a handful.

Wild Cards

Pittsburgh Penguins

The Penguins have a lot of chaos factors to contend with this year. A new coach is one. Their putative number one goaltender is on an expiring contract and unlike Crosby, Malkin, and Letang was not extended early. They lost two of their top four defensemen from last year. Matt Niskanen was their top points producer and Brooks Orpik led the team in short handed time on ice. To replace them they brought in Christian Ehrhoff. Aside from the top 3-4 names, it would be hard for an observer to guess where the rest of the forward group sits as most of them look a lot like bottom line players.

New York Islanders

The Islanders actually made some smart moves this summer. They picked up and locked up Grabovski giving them a compelling one two punch at center. Their defense is a whole lot of young and learning with Visnovsky and Carkner for contrast. On the backend they have two goalies new to the system, the up, then down, then sideways Jaroslav Halak and the surprising Chad Johnson. I will be equally unsurprised if this team is in the playoffs, or in the bottom five in the league.

Washington Capitals

The Capitals are the east coast equivalent of the San Jose Sharks. On paper they’ve had the talent to win the Cup at lest once in the last decade, on ice, not so much. They too have a new coach, and possibly more importantly they have a coach who recognizes what he’s dealing with. Barry Trotz did what was probably the smartest thing a Capitals coach has done in several years and put Ovechkin back on left wing where he is most comfortable and had several pretty good seasons. The defense could shake out into pairings of Carlson-Greene, Niskanen-Orpik, and Alzner-Erskine, which as top six defense units go, is better than many can boast.

The Rest

Philadelphia Flyers

Even allowing for the Pronger/Timonen money once the season starts and he can be placed on LTIR, the Flyers are still in cap trouble. The roster genuinely looks like the team is trying to tank but just doesn’t know how. Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds, and Jacob Voracek are all top end players, the rest of the forward group and much of the rest of the roster feels like the punchline to an inside joke that you’re not quite inside enough for. That said, this is largely the group that managed to make the playoffs last year.

New Jersey Devils

On the plus side the added Mike Cammalleri and finally admitted who their number one goaltender is. On the other side of the balance they added Martin Havlat who is generally good for one bizarre injury and twenty or more man games lost. The defense is rather bland, no one makes over Zajac’s $5.75m and yet they are still only three million from the cap, all without their seeming to have found a backup goalie.

Carolina Hurricanes

The season will kickoff on a sour note with Jordan Staal down-checked for an unknown amount of time with a broken leg. Even assuming Jordan Staal and he rest of the top six forwards were healthy and productive all season, Caniacs were still in for a long slog. The teams defense has high water marks that are merely average followed up by players who are at historical drought levels of talent. It would not be a surprise to see this team draft in the top three next June. The only real hope in season for this team is for the coach with the enthusiastic backing of management to go with whichever goalie is playing better and not with the one they’ve been trying to pass off a a franchise goalie for half a decade.

For part 1 look here.

Mattias Ekholm when you get your first taste of the NHL in a season when the whole team is struggling to only suck a little, its hard to saw where your talents (or lack their-of) end and the teams balance begins. Roughly 17 minutes a night is a sign your coach has at least some trust in you, and having very slightly better road numbers than home in a very competitive division. It would be interesting to see how heavily his international experience in the SHL is counted, if at all. Only one year of NHL time to go on, and that with a poorish -8, its unlikely he gets north of $925,000.

Kevin Poulin is a goalie in the New York Islanders who like their next period of dominance has been a year away for as long as anyone can remember. His sv% is actually regressing at the NHL level since his debut. More than one goalie has put up better numbers in the last few years in an Islanders uniform. Arbitration may bring his deal below the qualifying offer level presumably he’d seek a higher AHL salary. Anywhere in the mid $600k range.

Derick Brassard was fourth in points for the Eastern Conference champions, had four game winners in the regular season and two in twelve games in the playoffs. Brassard is a solid player who plays all out on a pretty regular basis.  One comparable is Dave Bolland, who recently cashed in for $5,500,000 per year. Another would be Boston’s Chris Kelly $3,000,000 and a realistic salary is anywhere between them given the way Bolland playing in a market with a low ability to attract high end free agents jacked up his price.

Chris Kreider is either still developing as a player or a class one Kovalev level enigma. In the regular season he was a pretty unassuming 3rd line level contributor. In the playoffs, he was nearly a point per game. The really wonky part of this is that he only played about a minute more per game in the playoffs than he averaged in the regular season. Want even loopier? In his last 10 regular season games (March 7-24) he wasn’t playing much going pointless in 6 of them, playing under 10 minutes in two, and only crossing 15 minutes twice. Then when he returned in the playoffs, 13 points in 15 games after over a month with no game action. His NHL career is rather oddly shaped, he’s played 41 post season games and is over half a point a game in them, which is higher than his regular season conversion with 89 and 40. His price tag could go anywhere from as low as $1m to $2.75 depending on where the market is set before his arbitration, depending on the length of the contract the high end might not be so bad at 4+ years for the team for a 1-3 year deal expect them to push for something lower.

Mats Zuccarello is another of the New York Rangers players filing for arbitration. It’s hard to decide with so little NHL time on his dossier if he’s destined to be a top six guy, or a bottom six guy. Which place the arbitrator assigns him will go a long way towards setting his price. As a guy who has yet to break 20 goals in the NHL. a bottom six designation is most likely, so $2.25m is about the max you should expect to see him.

Derek Grant has a full 25 games of NHL experience and has averaged under 10 minutes a night. A fourth round he hasnt got much to build a case around but you can bet his 2:14 a night of shorthanded time will play a prominent part in his positioning of his team value. I don’t expect him to cross $750,000 but like the other guys in the lower range of the pay scale he may be angling for a one way contract or higher AHL salary.

Nick Spaling is part of the return for the Pittsburgh Penguins on James Neal. It is pretty doubtful anyone expects him to produce like Neal, and they just can’t afford to. His playoff experience and contributions are negligible, but under the most conservative and defensive minded coach in the NHL he gained minutes and responsibility steadily. He made $1.5m last year on a one year deal and was traded in the off season giving the Penguins exactly zero experience with him in their system and city. He does have a history of being a pretty disciplined player on ice with very few penalties at all.  Anything from $1.3m up is possible, P.A. Parenteau had the same number of points and just inked a deal for four years worth $4m as a UFA, Nathan Gerbe produced at the same level and will make $2m, Carl Hagelin was again in the same range and was paid $2.1 last year and will get $2.4m this year. A three year deal at $2,300,000 per should be comfortable for both, even if each side thinks they could do better.

Jason Demers is a solidly built right shooting defnsemen who played just under 20 minutes a night in the Sharks system last year in the regular season and playoffs.  As a right shooting defenseman, if he is award more by the arbitrator than San Jose wishes to pay, he can expect to be employed again anyway in a matter of days. Interesting to note is how both his short-handed and powerplay time went up in the playoffs. He has a noticeable, if not career threatening history of injuries. Slava Voynov plays with a similar level of physicality, is also a right shot defenseman with essentially the same body size and his contract (signed last year) is worth $4.16m. Former teammate Dan Boyle had similar points and is much signed a UFA deal for $4.5m per year, Cam Fowler last year signed a five year four million a year deal. Anything under $2.5 is unrealistic as is anything over five. I’m guessing a deal in the near neighborhood of Vlasic’s $4.25 will be worked out with the biggest variances being term and if Demers gets a no trade clause as well.

Cody Franson is another right shooting defenseman. He’s a bit larger than Demers, but points wise they are about the same guy. Franson accumulates more hits and blocked shots, and has steadily increased his offensive production. His overall defensive game may limit him to a smaller contract than Demers will get, but identical deal wouldn’t be unfair.

James Reimer lost the starting job over the course of last season with a sv% .012 lower than creasemate Jonathan Bernier. That said, last year was clearly his worst NHL season for goals against average, and last season he brought the team into the playoffs. With the exception of the lockout shortened season he’s never played the bulk of the schedule in either the AHL or NHL. He and his will undoubtedly argue for starter money, but reality says he’s a backup and a good one. Comparable are Anton Khudobin, $2.25m, Ben Bishop, or Alex Stalock so a deal between $1.8 to $2.2m is a solid landing zone.