For part 1 look here.
Mattias Ekholm when you get your first taste of the NHL in a season when the whole team is struggling to only suck a little, its hard to saw where your talents (or lack their-of) end and the teams balance begins. Roughly 17 minutes a night is a sign your coach has at least some trust in you, and having very slightly better road numbers than home in a very competitive division. It would be interesting to see how heavily his international experience in the SHL is counted, if at all. Only one year of NHL time to go on, and that with a poorish -8, its unlikely he gets north of $925,000.
Kevin Poulin is a goalie in the New York Islanders who like their next period of dominance has been a year away for as long as anyone can remember. His sv% is actually regressing at the NHL level since his debut. More than one goalie has put up better numbers in the last few years in an Islanders uniform. Arbitration may bring his deal below the qualifying offer level presumably he’d seek a higher AHL salary. Anywhere in the mid $600k range.
Derick Brassard was fourth in points for the Eastern Conference champions, had four game winners in the regular season and two in twelve games in the playoffs. Brassard is a solid player who plays all out on a pretty regular basis. One comparable is Dave Bolland, who recently cashed in for $5,500,000 per year. Another would be Boston’s Chris Kelly $3,000,000 and a realistic salary is anywhere between them given the way Bolland playing in a market with a low ability to attract high end free agents jacked up his price.
Chris Kreider is either still developing as a player or a class one Kovalev level enigma. In the regular season he was a pretty unassuming 3rd line level contributor. In the playoffs, he was nearly a point per game. The really wonky part of this is that he only played about a minute more per game in the playoffs than he averaged in the regular season. Want even loopier? In his last 10 regular season games (March 7-24) he wasn’t playing much going pointless in 6 of them, playing under 10 minutes in two, and only crossing 15 minutes twice. Then when he returned in the playoffs, 13 points in 15 games after over a month with no game action. His NHL career is rather oddly shaped, he’s played 41 post season games and is over half a point a game in them, which is higher than his regular season conversion with 89 and 40. His price tag could go anywhere from as low as $1m to $2.75 depending on where the market is set before his arbitration, depending on the length of the contract the high end might not be so bad at 4+ years for the team for a 1-3 year deal expect them to push for something lower.
Mats Zuccarello is another of the New York Rangers players filing for arbitration. It’s hard to decide with so little NHL time on his dossier if he’s destined to be a top six guy, or a bottom six guy. Which place the arbitrator assigns him will go a long way towards setting his price. As a guy who has yet to break 20 goals in the NHL. a bottom six designation is most likely, so $2.25m is about the max you should expect to see him.
Derek Grant has a full 25 games of NHL experience and has averaged under 10 minutes a night. A fourth round he hasnt got much to build a case around but you can bet his 2:14 a night of shorthanded time will play a prominent part in his positioning of his team value. I don’t expect him to cross $750,000 but like the other guys in the lower range of the pay scale he may be angling for a one way contract or higher AHL salary.
Nick Spaling is part of the return for the Pittsburgh Penguins on James Neal. It is pretty doubtful anyone expects him to produce like Neal, and they just can’t afford to. His playoff experience and contributions are negligible, but under the most conservative and defensive minded coach in the NHL he gained minutes and responsibility steadily. He made $1.5m last year on a one year deal and was traded in the off season giving the Penguins exactly zero experience with him in their system and city. He does have a history of being a pretty disciplined player on ice with very few penalties at all. Anything from $1.3m up is possible, P.A. Parenteau had the same number of points and just inked a deal for four years worth $4m as a UFA, Nathan Gerbe produced at the same level and will make $2m, Carl Hagelin was again in the same range and was paid $2.1 last year and will get $2.4m this year. A three year deal at $2,300,000 per should be comfortable for both, even if each side thinks they could do better.
Jason Demers is a solidly built right shooting defnsemen who played just under 20 minutes a night in the Sharks system last year in the regular season and playoffs. As a right shooting defenseman, if he is award more by the arbitrator than San Jose wishes to pay, he can expect to be employed again anyway in a matter of days. Interesting to note is how both his short-handed and powerplay time went up in the playoffs. He has a noticeable, if not career threatening history of injuries. Slava Voynov plays with a similar level of physicality, is also a right shot defenseman with essentially the same body size and his contract (signed last year) is worth $4.16m. Former teammate Dan Boyle had similar points and is much signed a UFA deal for $4.5m per year, Cam Fowler last year signed a five year four million a year deal. Anything under $2.5 is unrealistic as is anything over five. I’m guessing a deal in the near neighborhood of Vlasic’s $4.25 will be worked out with the biggest variances being term and if Demers gets a no trade clause as well.
Cody Franson is another right shooting defenseman. He’s a bit larger than Demers, but points wise they are about the same guy. Franson accumulates more hits and blocked shots, and has steadily increased his offensive production. His overall defensive game may limit him to a smaller contract than Demers will get, but identical deal wouldn’t be unfair.
James Reimer lost the starting job over the course of last season with a sv% .012 lower than creasemate Jonathan Bernier. That said, last year was clearly his worst NHL season for goals against average, and last season he brought the team into the playoffs. With the exception of the lockout shortened season he’s never played the bulk of the schedule in either the AHL or NHL. He and his will undoubtedly argue for starter money, but reality says he’s a backup and a good one. Comparable are Anton Khudobin, $2.25m, Ben Bishop, or Alex Stalock so a deal between $1.8 to $2.2m is a solid landing zone.