Update at bottom

News broke that Shea Weber had signed an offer sheet with the Predators.

Breaking: Shea Weber agrees to offer sheet with Philadelphia. 14 years, upwards of $100 mil. Preds have 7 days to match. Wow!!
Darren Dreger

Exact details are unknown, but Dreger suggest it is a huge deal. At $100million and fourteen years the compensation would only be two first round picks, a second and a third. As the Philadelphia Flyers are unlikely to finish outside the playoffs anytime soon, that means picks no higher than 16 and probably in the mid twenties. If the total compensation passes $7,835,220 a total of $109,693,080 that compensation would go to four first round picks.

That is where the question gets murky. With their own system depth at defense, and their own picks they can turn four first round picks into a number of players. Next years draft is topped by defensive stud Seth Jones, Marsellis Subban cousin of P.K. is also in that draft class, Jordan Subban is another defender due in the next two seasons. Offensively the Oilers probably need to shed one or two top six forwards to make room on the roster and under the cap for players like Eberle, Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Yakupov and more. This could be a reformation of the team, and for the better. They’ve never been a balanced team. They do need something in the way of top 30% of the league offensive players which they do not have to compliment the teams defense and Rinne in net.

If the offer hits the four first tipping point it might, just possibly be wiser to decline to match.

The other important question to ask is: Will the Flyers deal fit into the current CBA, or will they get whacked like the New Jersey Devils did over the first Ilya Kovalchuk contract? At twenty-six he’s been mostly healthy through his career, but has had a concussion that cost him games, and the eastern conference as a whole, and the Atlantic Division in particular have a lot more larger, more physical forwards to counter than the Central division offered.

I’m told by Bob Mand @HockeyMand:

it’ll be 4 1st-round picks regardless. After five seasons, the AAV isn’t the basis of compensation – you divide the total salary by 5 y (so, for a 20 y, $2m deal the comp. would be four 1sts, not a 2nd-round pick). Unless total comp is under $40m, its automatically 4 firsts.

Logical, and makes the choice harder.

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PuckSage.com is a hockey site focusing on the NHL, the playing style of teams and players with analysis and the occasional predictions. If it doesn't involve what happens on ice, I won't be writing about it. About Me: Writer! Here. write hockey. I can be found on Twitter @PuckSage on Google+ and my Facebook Page is handily listed on the main page here. Radio Personality: Guest Hockey expert on WATD 95.9FM Hockey lover, cognac drinker, lover of good steak, good music, and things that make me laugh. I hate cats, cat people, sloppy hockey and vegans.

One Thought on “Shea Weber Signed To Offer Sheet: Should The Predators Match? – Update

  1. Compensation will be four-firsts.

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