Update at bottom
News broke that Shea Weber had signed an offer sheet with the Predators.
Exact details are unknown, but Dreger suggest it is a huge deal. At $100million and fourteen years the compensation would only be two first round picks, a second and a third. As the Philadelphia Flyers are unlikely to finish outside the playoffs anytime soon, that means picks no higher than 16 and probably in the mid twenties. If the total compensation passes $7,835,220 a total of $109,693,080 that compensation would go to four first round picks.
That is where the question gets murky. With their own system depth at defense, and their own picks they can turn four first round picks into a number of players. Next years draft is topped by defensive stud Seth Jones, Marsellis Subban cousin of P.K. is also in that draft class, Jordan Subban is another defender due in the next two seasons. Offensively the Oilers probably need to shed one or two top six forwards to make room on the roster and under the cap for players like Eberle, Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Yakupov and more. This could be a reformation of the team, and for the better. They’ve never been a balanced team. They do need something in the way of top 30% of the league offensive players which they do not have to compliment the teams defense and Rinne in net.
If the offer hits the four first tipping point it might, just possibly be wiser to decline to match.
The other important question to ask is: Will the Flyers deal fit into the current CBA, or will they get whacked like the New Jersey Devils did over the first Ilya Kovalchuk contract? At twenty-six he’s been mostly healthy through his career, but has had a concussion that cost him games, and the eastern conference as a whole, and the Atlantic Division in particular have a lot more larger, more physical forwards to counter than the Central division offered.
I’m told by Bob Mand @HockeyMand:
it’ll be 4 1st-round picks regardless. After five seasons, the AAV isn’t the basis of compensation – you divide the total salary by 5 y (so, for a 20 y, $2m deal the comp. would be four 1sts, not a 2nd-round pick). Unless total comp is under $40m, its automatically 4 firsts.
Logical, and makes the choice harder.