The summer is half over. We’re closer to the start of the new season, they we are to the end of the last regular season. In most ways that is fantastic. Unless your team is one of those fiddling around with their talent. Here are the restricted free agents who are pivotal to their team.

Calvin De Haan

With the departure of Travis Hamonic, someone needs to take up the slack. It’s a given that De Haan will pick up more of the vacated ice time than the elderly Seidenberg or the aging Boychuk. What remains to be seen is how soon, if at all the Islanders decide to pay him.

Nate Schmidt

While it is unlikely the former Washington Capital will see 24 minutes a night, if the Knights plan to move him rather than sign him, they may well have already have passed their use by date on movement of the freshly 26 year old alum of the Fargo Force and University of Minnesota.

Bo Hovart

Hovart is likely in for some of the longest years of his life as the Vancouver Canucks go into the post Sedin rebuild. Being unsigned this long makes me wonder if he wishes to be in British Columbia when the team comes out of that long dark tunnel. The more likely explanation is that the team is trying to explain to him that just because he was their biggest points producer last year he shouldn’t expect to be paid like one.

Leon Draisaitl

He and team mate Connor McDavid may be the catalysts for the next lockout and salary rollback. For the 2018-19 season the Edmonton Oilers have twelve players currently under contract with just $22 million to sign the rest of the roster. If Draisaitl signs for the $8-10m some expect the cap crunch begins immediately. Even at $6-7m their will be a roster purge and without the cap jumping fifteen to eighteen million, there is no way the Oilers can be competitive.  This is a very talented player, but is the General Manager able to keep things together?

Sam Bennett

Bennett had a visible sophomore slump last year, which is not unexpected. He partially redeemed himself with two goals in the four playoff games the Calgary Flames played last year. It’s reasonably save to predict him as a 50-60 point guy, but don’t be surprised by a bridge contract that pays a little closer to what he’s produced so far.

David Pastrnak

One of the more dynamic wingers in the NHL last year his rise from good to league leader can’t be understated. In the early part of the season when none of the Boston Bruins centers were performing at an even average level he was near the top of the leaderboard. Not signing Pastrnak to similar deal to Marchand’s or a little less would be the worst, and possibly final mistake of Don Sweeney’s tenure as Boston General Manager.

Mikael Granlund

On a team whose best known players are all 32 or older, they need to retain not just the youngest, but the middle years players like Mikael Granlund who made and earned his $3m last year in what counts as a career year for the 25 year old native of Finland. No one is under the illusion Granlund is The Guy in Minnesota, but he’s a guy they can’t replace from the current free agent market.

The internet is almost certainly the most fascinating tool mankind has ever invented. On it I’ve learned more about genetics, hockey, medicine, politics, history and other topics than I could ever have imagined knowing. Today I learned something new. Seth Jones is depth defenseman. I’m pretty sure it’s been a long time since Seth Jones was dismissed as being the fourth or fifth most interesting player on a blueline. It wasn’t last year, it likely wasn’t the year before, and even when he played in that scary, scary Nashville Predator’s defensive unit he still got lots of talk.

Sure it’s possible to undervalue Jones, I mean the Avalanche, Panthers, and Lightning all passed him over in 2013. The Avalanche are searching for defense still, the Panthers over spent two years ago on free agents, and the Lightning had hold out issues with, and finally traded Jonathan Drouin who they took over Jones, for a defenseman.

Among his draft year only Sean Monahan has played more games to date, and that’s just by four.

But Jones is a depth defenseman if one writers it to be believed, I mean I heard it on the internet so it must be true. You’re not allowed to lie online.

So let’s look at the proof Seth Jones is a depth defensemen.

In the most recent season 200 defensemen skated in thirty five or more games.

Jones ranked:

  • 36th for total minutes (75 games played) that’s top 18%
  • 26th for time on ice per game, that’s top 13%
  • 77th for shorthanded time on ice, that’s 38th percentile with 2:07 per game
  • 65th for powerplay TOI for top 32%

Fancy Stats:

  • of the 68 defensemen to skate in 35 games and cross 1301 minutes he was .01 behind Victor Hedman and .04 behind Erik Karlsson in goals against per 60
  • in goals for per 60 he was about a third of a goal better than Shea Weber, Drew Doughty, or Keith Yandle in that same high minute 68 defensemen
  • Jones was 5th among defensemen to play 35 games or more in even strength points, with every player above him having played more games
  • in points per game among those same defensemen, he was 19th, good for top 10%

So with the help of NHL.com and Puckalytics.com I now completely understand how someone could believe Seth Jones is a depth defenseman. 

And as much as I like the Blue Jackets defense, I’m not sure they’re even in the top 5 in the NHL right now. The Ducks, Predators, and Minnesota would easily be above them, and one can make strong cases for other teams including the Carolina Hurricanes.

This is a series I’ve run in the past and decided to bring back/ The premise is simple: increasing NHL scoring without making drastic changes to the game, or crippling defense and goaltending at the expense of goals.

This week post is built around an idea that is already in place in some non-manpower penalties. When a team is accessed an unmatched penalty, they do not get a chance to change personnel until the next whistle or they manage to do so during the course of play.

With this rule in place officials would already know who has on the ice and not need to engage in time wasting, ineffective replay, nor would it be a “judgment call”. Time, and the flow of the game would be saved. The team moving to the man advantage would be allowed a brief period to change, and could get their desired staff on the ice. The penalized team might be stuck without a center or a defenseman, and that’s okay. If the goal of penalties is to discourage players from plays that risk injury to other players and goals being given up, this is yet another way to underscore discipline. I suspect this would move powerplay scoring up two to three percent on average across the NHL.

 

The Warrior Ice Arena is a totally different place to watch the youngsters than the Ice Box in Wilmington.

My first impulse today was to wonder at the fitness level of the first group on the ice. Yes they were hamming it up for the cameras on the ice, but they were also clearly laboring. When guys like Bjork, Gabrielle, and Sherman look a bit slower than normal it i a pretty safe bet Whitesides and crew have been up to their tricks testing and building the fitness of the prospects.

Wiley Sherman continued to eat opposing players alive, in one on one drills they usually didn’t make it over the blueline. He looks to have an even higher percentage of lean mass this year, and he wasn’t exactly fluffy last time I saw him.

Ryan Donato is just polished. He is clearly one of the most talented players, not just one of the oldest.

Oskar Steen is clearly more physically mature than last year, and make four or five passes that drew notice.

Anders Bjork should be your favorite to take a roster spot in Boston this fall of all the players yet to play a professional game. Like Donato he’s fast, he’s agile, and he may have the best shot accuracy of all the forwards outside the NHL/AHL.

Daniel Bukac was their seventh round pick this year, I didn’t need to look up his stats to see him as a defensive minded defenseman. He didn’t seem out of his element playing against the older forwards.

Perhaps the most surprising guy was late invitee James Corcoran, the Walpole High goaltender. Smaller guy, but really, who cares? I liked his ability to hold the post while down, and still extend well forward and uses his stick. Snappy glove too.

Jack Becker might have been feeling the least wear from whatever was going on before practice. Only Senyshyn appeared faster in drills and rushes. Becker skated well, passed solidly.

During the scrimmage Jack Studnicka had a completely filthy, behind the back, through the defenders legs pass to Bjork pass that should rightly have sent everyone in the building to decontamination showers. (Bjork roofed it.)

A late add was Ori Abramson, a big defensive minded defenseman born in Ontario and attending University of Vermont. He’s a little older than most of the prospects but didn’t look out of place. Leans towards a close space and use stick type of defense.

Carey Price is one of the best known players in the world. He’s one of the best goalies ever to play for one of the original NHL franchises. He’s also one of the best paid, and when his next contract kicks in he’ll be one of the very best paid players in the whole NHL.

Top Paid Goalie Via CapFriendly.com

What do I see when I look at this list? I see guys who have one Stanley Cups. I see guys who have played in the Stanley Cup finals. I also see guys who are overpaid. Payment in the NHL is supposed to be for performance, and results, not because they a guy plays the most scrutinized position in one of the most intense media markets.

Roberto Luongo (with help from Schnieder a couple years) backstopped his team to several division titles. and dragged a team that flatlined after game four to a seventh game of the Stanley Cup Finals. Tukka Rask went toe to toe in the Stanley Cup Finals with the Chicago BlackHawks. Henrik Lundqvist has one stupidly successful season after another winning 30 or more games every full season of his career. He’s also played in a Stanley Cup final despite Alain Vigneault being behind the bench.

Pekka Rinne? He’s had obscenely low goal support most of his career. He just played a Conn-Smyth worthy playoff campaign that took his team to game six. Marc-Andre Fleury has played his whole career to date in an offense first, second, and third rule “system”, and ya’know won a Cup or two. Jonathan Quick, like Rinne has played one one of the most goal parched rosters in the NHL his whole career, but he’s won cups. Corey Crawford? He outdueled Vezina winner Tukka Rask among others on his way to a Stanley Cup.

The rest of these guys? They range from slightly overpaid to wildly overpaid. Being a top five or top ten player at any given position is for guys who win. And winning means the regular season is utterly irrelevant. You have to give your team at least a chance in the Big Dance.

When has Carey Price done that last part? Like Sergei Bobrovsky and Brayden Holtby, he’s proven he’s a great regular season goalie. He hasn’t proven he’s a winner when it counts. His name isn’t on the Cup, and unless the Cap goes up to about $115million during the first two or three years of his new contract the odds of him proving he’s able to take a team to the top in his prime are about equal to that of Jarome Iginla or Joe Thornton. At this point, he’s overpayed.Unlike three of the other top five he’s not ever given his team a chance to win the Cup.