Of the teams left who are expected to make the playoffs, or sell out to make a playoff some of them have yet to make a move, there are different pressures on all of them, and different asset sets.

The San Jose Sharks went as deep into the playoffs as you can go last year, and made some savvy moves in the off season adding some speed, and some playoff acumen. As it stands they are likely the third most dangerous team in the west. They could go out and make a move and add something now, but what? There isn’t as much pressure to do something as there has been in the past. They also lack assets. They don’t have either a second or third round pick in the next two drafts. The talent pipeline for the Sharks really isn’t good either. They are ranked as the 23rd best farm system. Don’t expect much.

The Edmonton Oilers made a minor move to add Henrik Samuelsson back on the first, but haven’t done anything that will impact their playoff prognosis, and nor should they. They have literally no pressure. Lucic, Maroon, and Talbot have all been to the post season before and can help mold how the team responds to the pressure, the highs, and the lows of the second season. They really shouldn’t make any moves, I can’t think of any available combination of players that would make them the best in the west, much less the favorite to win the Cup.

The Boston Bruins need to either commit to the rebuild and move out everyone they don’t expect to see on the roster in three years or just do nothing. They have decent to really good prospects in the system at both wing and defense, and they have some goalies who have high potential as well. If anything I think they should ask two of their biggest salaries (Rask, Krejci) to waive their movement clauses and see what they can get for them. I don’t expect a significant move, because this isn’t a contender.

If the Nashville Predators have decided this isn’t this year (and they should), they should move some older player for young assets. Fisher is well regarded, and at 36 he’s not got many more chances to go for a Cup. A contender who added him would be getting a better deal, and a guy with more miles left than Doan or Iginla. Vernon Fiddler is inexpensive, versatile, and playoff experienced. If he can be moved for anything he should be as I doubt the team brings him back next year. If they do want to make a move for a push into the second round, they are only short one fourth round pick in the next four years.

The Colorado Avalanche have two of the most talked about potential trade pieces of the last three months, and whatever they go after with those pieces, they players they bring back should be defensemen. Maybe they make a trade with the Hurricanes that brings them Faulk or a wealth of prospects from a team like Nashville. Sell, sell, sell should be the mantra of the team. Pretty much everyone on that team over the age of 25 should be made available, with the possible exception of Erik Johnson who would likely fetch as big a return as anyone but MacKinnon.

 

For the Minnesota Wild I think the biggest goal in adding depth to the team is pretty simple; Don’t disrupt the chemistry. Offensively, and even at defense they don’t have a single current NHL superstar. Eric Staal once held that status, Ryan Suter probably should hold that status, and Zach Parise spent several years right on the cusp of superstardom, Mikko Koivu has been largely ignored in his career.

Hanzal at 30 will have all the things he should need to contribute without disrupting the locker room:

  • agemates
  • motivation to perform as he’s a UFA
  • the opportunity to play on a team that is easily the best of his pro career going into the playoffs.
  • no need to do everything
  • guys happy to see him because of what he brings

On top of that, being that Minnesota is a medium or small market, he won’t face the galactic size culture shock of going someplace like Montreal, Toronto, or one of the big cities where you not only have all the pressure of playing and winning but are likely to be set upon by fans, media, and traveling rival fans at any given moment. The Twin Cities are sure as heck going to be colder for the next few months than the greater Phoenix area, but playing hard and long shift will keep him warm. Not to mention the hope of a Cup playing for what is quite likely the most consistently good team of the year out west.

Win or lose in the playoffs, how he does for individual stats will greatly impact the number of teams, and number of dollars he is offered in July when he hits UFA status.

According to the NHL Network, Ben Bishop has been traded from the Tampa Bay Lightning, Peter Budaj went the other way, and there are other pieces involved. What those pieces are, is almost completely irrelevant because there is only two ways the Kings keeping Bishop past the trade deadline makes any sense whatsoever.

Option A:

Jonathan Quick has another injury that has yet to be disclosed.

Option B:

The Kings have decided to keep Bishop past the deadline in the hopes of having him taken over any of their skaters in the expansion draft.

But I greatly doubt either of those is the case.

I think the Lightning needed to move him, and the only teams that wanted him wouldn’t make sense to trade to. I suspect the Kings have a destination in mind for him back east. If you look around not very hard for teams the Kings have had several successful trades with, who also need a goalie, the Philadelphia Flyers should leap to the tip of your tongue. The New York Islanders are another team that is really, really in need of goaltending stability. While it makes less sense for a three cornered trade to involve Winnipeg or Dallas, neither of them is in the same division as either the Kings or the Lightning, both teams are need of goaltending, and the Jets are going to need to move one or more forwards on the upper end of the age curve if they intend to keep the younger ones.

I’m willing to venture the odds of Ben Bishop not being a King on March second are greater than him playing there the rest of the year.

There comes a time in every athletes career when they no longer have the stuff to keep competing at the top level. In some cases they never have it. In other cases they hit apogee and then begin descent. Some hang on for a while, some few quit at their peak, and others just keep going until no one will pay them. Here’s seven players who just need to end their NHL career now.

 

#7

Jarome Iginla, the future hall of fame right wing has done everything except hoist the Stanley Cup. His last two attempts at joining a winner resulted in him being routed as part of the Pittsburgh Penguins, and putting up a strong performance for the Boston Bruins while playing with a center who slept through the playoffs. But that was almost four years ago. This year he’s got all of 18 points in 59 games for an admittedly wretched Colorado Avalanche team.

#6

At age 30 Marc Staal may be the youngest guy looking towards the end of his career right now. Once well established in the top third of the NHL defensemen, he’s had more than his fair share of injuries, and unlike brothers Jordan and Eric, he’s not won a cup.  His ice time is declining, this year he’s played about two full minutes of ice time less than three seasons ago. That change takes him from well established among middle pairing defensemen, to roughly the average of better third pairing guys. He’s got four more years on his contract, and there is a very reach chance he gets bought out before it’s over.

#5

Niklas Kronwall is one of the Red Wings lifers, drafted 29th in 2000 the 36 year old Swede is very near the end of his tenure on ice. With the team in the last quarter of the season, and the end of the playoff streak a certainty, it won’t be much longer before Kronwall is as much a memory as the glory days of the best of Mike Ilitch’s tenure as owner. Ice time is down, he’s missed almost as many games as he’s played over this and last season, and his offense, never his forte for sure, is shrinking. At this point he needs to spend a day or two thinking about how much pain he thinks he’ll be able to tolerate in a decade.

#4

Ryan Callahan has almost hit the mountaintop as a Ranger and as a member of the Lightning, He’s one of those guys who teams love not just for the offense he used to contribute, but for his ability to play against anyone, first line, fourth line powerplay or penalty kill. He blocked shots, lifted wristers into the net, and played every breath of every shift. In just a couple weeks the Guelph Storm alum will turn 32. All the blocked shots, hits, and hard nights have take their toll.

#3

When you lay just 154 games in a five year period, the question as to if you fall on the stubborn or just plain crazy side of the line is probably answered emphatically without the need to resort to a psych eval. Matt Greene was once the best defenseman the Edmonton Oilers drafted in over a decade. By games played he still is. But of late playing has been the exception and not the rule. While there’s a decent chance the Los Angeles Kings will still be playing on May 13th, the odds of him playing on the date or within a week inside of it are not great.

 

#’s 2 & 1

Henrik and Daniel Sedin are not only well past their prime, they are an active detriment to the team they highlighted for so long. Gone are the days when they were a point a game players, vanished is the hundred plus point season. This year, the pair will be lucky to hit a hundred points combined. The two take a combined fourteen million a year. They are on the books for one more year, and I’m dreadfully certain they’ll at least start next season. Why? It isn’t just the remaining term, Daniel is still 24 points short of the 1000 point mark.

 

This afternoon I had a discussion with a hockey fan who believes the Boston Bruins are tanking. Not just for this year, but for next year as well. I’m not saying I believe this idea, but with all the evidence it is certainly possible.

The Evidence:

  1. No one in the NHL, CHL, USHL, SPHL, AHL or anywhere else in first world hockey thinks that Bruce Cassidy is a better coach than Claude Julien.
  2. The resigning of John-Michael Liles and allowing him to play so much.
  3. The signing of David Backes who five years ago would have been the perfect pickup, but who now is only questionable without being outright wrong.
  4. Absolutely no upgrades at defense which many thought was their biggest need coming into the season.
  5. No additional scoring forwards
  6. Riley Nash was “added” to a team trying to get into the playoffs, when he couldn’t even stay in the NHL in an organization that wanted to be seen on the same page of the standings as the playoff teams.
  7. Allowing Jack Adams winning, Stanley Cup winning, World Cup winning Claude Julien, who knows any of the home grown players, and most of the rest of the roster better than anyone else in the league from having coached them for so long, go to the other half of the greatest rivalry in North American sports.
  8. Sliding a rookie defensemen onto the ice with Zdeno Chara to play against the best players on the other team.
  9. Failure to bury Matt Beleskey and Jimmy Hayes in the minors or otherwise remove them from the roster to allow more talented forwards to fill the roster.
  10. Signing Anton Khudobin, who when healthy is a solid netminder to a two year deal, and who also hasn’t been healthy more than two months since the end of his first tenure in Boston.
  11. The entire fourth line. Seriously, Tim Schaller? Did marketing pick him because ratings were down in NH? Dominic Moore is, possibly, an accidental exception given that he’s having an above average goal scoring season. Or maybe he’s just in Boston because he’s a Harvard guy? Colton Hargrove, Noel Acciari, Austin Czarnik, and others could have done the job as well, and with more cap space left over to address very real needs in the theoretical top nine
  12. The fact that nobody is talking about this years draft, but that name for next year are coming up.

So here’s how this theoretical Rick-Rolling works: The Bruins were bafflingly in a playoff spot 50 plus games into the season, and that needs to change. Not just so the team has better draft position this year, but so there are lower expectations for next year when among other things the no movement clause on Rask’s contract becomes an NTC. Remember, this is Rask’s fourth straight year of sv% decline, and according to Hockey-Reference.com is a below average goalie already according to GSAA.

Also, for this theory to work you probably have to believe what 29 (going on 30) other NHL teams have thought of Bruce Cassidy for more than a decade; That he’s not a good NHL coach, assuming he’s one at all. He has never won at any level, when he was given the bums rush from Washington he belly flopped into the OHL. In his last 10 seasons as a head coach in the AHL, OHL, and NHL he as won just three rounds of playoff hockey. For comparison Ted Nolan who is not employed as an NHL coach right now won championships in both the OHL and QMJHL, and won a Jack Adams award for best NHL coach. That’s a stark comparison, and one would think if you’re trying to win, you take (or keep) a guy who has won, and who given the trends in the NHL, has done so with young players versus not at all.

So given that the Bruins are lacking top draft picks this season. What happens if they trade out of this years draft? What happens if they trade this years pieces for picks in the seemingly stronger 2018 draft class? They get high picks, and underdog status in the following season. Boston, all of New England loves an underdog. And in sports nothing, not even winning is sexier than hope. We know Sweeney loves draft picks. We saw him take three first round picks in a row in the low teens instead of trading even one of them to improve the team now. That’s unprecedented in the modern era. Think of trading one or more of those picks and bringing in Trouba or Dumba, but no, not the Sweeney way.

If you truly believe the Boston Bruins front office covets young men like Rasmus Dahlin or David Levin, or Joe Veleno and they might make people forget a couple bad seasons if they laced up and lit up in Black and Gold, I think it’s safe to say this idea might not be pure vapor. When you remember that there are articles and posts from people in the know pegging players at the top of the 2018 draft going back to more than 18 months before the draft, and look at other drafts where that happened like say in the 2009 draft one begins to wonder why the fan I spoke to had Rick Astley on the brain.

Today on the Two Man ForeCheck we talked a whole bunch about goalies. We didn’t get to the two in tonight’s game very much, but I’m going to continue a look at two stats the folks at Hockey-Reference.com use: Quality Starts, and RBS (Really Bad Starts), and what they look like in terms of goalies performance as a whole. Tonight’s most likely matchup is Martin Jones versus Tukka Rask. For a very brief period the two were teammates before Jones was passed on to the Bay area for the pick that became U.  of Wisconsin’s 2nd leading scorer Trent Frederic and Sean Kuraly.

Rask has a career low sv% at .912 in 46 starts coming into tonight.

 

 

Jones has 49 games played, a sv% of .913

 

What do the numbers mean? Other than the two being fairly similar goalies this year? If you take a look at the quality start number, which Hockey-Reference.com defines as starts with a save percentage above league average as indicative of the goalie that is giving their team the best changes to win, Jones is the clear leader in that category. The inverse of that is the RBS or Really Bad Start, that being games with a sv% under .850, then you have a strong indication as to who is a more consistent goaltender this year as well. About the only argument you can make for Rask being the better goaltender of the two is that he is playing in a tougher conference this year. But even that is a very, very fuzzy bit of conjecture when you consider that he is playing on a team that allows many fewer shot per game than the Sharks.

 

For Bruins fans, don’t give up hope they have been better on the road this year than at home, and are still within the honeymoon period with their new coach.

Gustav Nyquist of the Detroit Red Wings was suspended six games for this hit.

Here’s how he defended himself from his actual transcript:

10: “Dennis Wideman said getting suspended was a great way to spend time with family without the distractions of work.”

9:  “I was having flashbacks about all the rats in The Joe and well, Spurgeon’s about the right size.”

8: “He whispered ‘You’re by Bieber and I’m Chris Pronger’ when he mashed me into the glass.”

7: “Chris Simon bet me his investment with Bernie Madoff I couldn’t beat his biggest suspension.”

6: “I was kinda hoping if I got suspended for something stupid enough no one would notice how bad my numbers are this year.”

5: “Have you heard Zetterberg’s ‘When I was your age!’ stories? You’d do anything for some time away from them too.”

4: “Guys, come on, he said Koivu was better than Datsyuk!”

3: “Coach said if take the heat off of how bad we are for a couple day I can pick my linemates for the first ten games next year. Assuming he’s here that is. ”

2: “Spurgeon said he was taller than me and I was just trying to knock some sense into him.”

1.4: “I was actually hoping for a longer suspension so i didn’t have to be on the ice when the Wings were mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.”

1: “I’m not sure why you’re suspending me, Abdelkator does stuff like that four times a month without a call from you guys.”

I’ll open the dance by stating the obvious; unless Krejci or Bergeron is being moved out, Duchene is entirely the wrong guy for the Boston Bruins. Not for anything that he is, but for what he isn’t; and that’s better (when healthy) than Krejci or Bergeron. He probably will put up more points on a playoff quality team, but he’s not the topic of discussion.

I like Gabriel Landeskog. He’s a very solid player. He’s physical, he’s willing, he plays in all three zones at at least a passable level. He’s been pretty healthy over the course of his NHL. He’s put together three straight seasons with more than 20 goals. He’s even the captain, named so at a ludicrously young age.

Why is he probably not the best available winger? That’s easy, I can name one who has very similar physical attributes, is faster, meaner, and has something to prove.

Here’s the tale of the tape:

Career goals per game: Landeskog: 0.278 vs Winger X: 0.312

Hits per game (2011-present): Landeskog: 2.2 Winger X: 2.6

Goals by strength: Landeskog: 80 ES, 27PP 4SH 16 1stG 4OTG 16GWG Winger X: 94ES 16PPG 4SHG 22 1stG 3 OTG 19 GWG

Shot attempt %: Landeskog 49.71% vs Winger X 50.64%

Goals per 60: Landeskog 0.89 Winger X 1.05

Minor penalties drawn per 60: Landeskog 0.94 vs Winger X 1.21

SHTOI/G: Landeskog and Winger X 1:04

TOI/GP: Landeskog 18:47 vs Winger X 19:31

Cap hit next year: Winger X is $321,429 less expensive.

Why did I pick the stats I did? Partly because the biggest need from a winger would be goals, followed by physicality. And because any player that is going to survive in Boston will need to be able to contribute in all three zones.  In some people’s minds Winger X has a few marks against him. On his first team, in a city not very friendly to the melanin blessed, he had a reputation for trouble making which may have spilled over to his current team. On balance, none of the accusations in either city have ever been proved in court. And of course of the two, Winger X is the one who put together a 30 goal season at all, much less while under 21.

Evander Kane

I finally return to my favorite feature column.

If I told you in September that

Teams:

  • on 2/12 there would be three teams in playoff spots, including the Canadiens, Senators, and Leafs with the Calgary Flames knocking on the door
  • the best penalty kill in the NHL would belong to the Carolina Hurricanes.
  • the Montreal Canadiens would be 2nd in times shorthanded, with 197 times through 57 games
  • the Dallas Stars would not only have a worse powerplay than the Boston Bruins but be in the bottom third of the league
  • the Columbus Blue Jackets would be the only team in February with zero shorthanded goals allowed.
  • three of the top five NHL teams in five on five goals for would be outside the the playoffs
  • nearly one quarter of the teams holding a playoff spot including the Saint Louis Blues, Boston Bruins, Ottawa Senators would have an even or negative goal differential.

Players

  • Erik Karlsson of the Ottawa Senators would be tied for second in blocked shots per game.
  • Brayden Schenn would lead the NHL in powerplay goals
  • that Sidney Crosby would tied for 86th in powerplay assists
  • Jeff Carter would lead his team and the NHL in game winning goals, including one third of the tallies for the Kings
  • three of the top five rookies in the NHL in scoring would all play on one team: Mitchell Marner, Auston Matthews, and William Nylander
  • Peter Budaj would have his best career save percentage, the Kings in a playoff position, 26 wins, and the lead in shutouts.
  • two goalies would hold 30 win seasons, Devan Dubnyk and Sergei Bobrovsky, in less than 45 games played and also both be in the top 5 in total saves.

 

If I told you any of this in September would you have believed me?

Look for the next episode of Two Man Forecheck soon!

We’ll talk: Mike Illitch and his legacy, Claude Julien, expansion, the New York Islanders and more. Give my co-host @TheOffWing a follow and catch up on what he’s writing at TheOffWing.com .