This will be the best 1:39:56 of your hockey week. We talk about Travis Yost flailing about the playoff structure, we take a deep dive on Robin Lehner not just as part of our long, long look at goalies towards the end of the show but earlier on when we discuss his ripping into his team for being inconsistent. We take a look at the value of the bye week, and offer alternative rest options, all this and so much more in the best hockey podcast you’ll ever hear from Chris and Mike this week.
Today on the Two Man ForeCheck we talked a whole bunch about goalies. We didn’t get to the two in tonight’s game very much, but I’m going to continue a look at two stats the folks at Hockey-Reference.com use: Quality Starts, and RBS (Really Bad Starts), and what they look like in terms of goalies performance as a whole. Tonight’s most likely matchup is Martin Jones versus Tukka Rask. For a very brief period the two were teammates before Jones was passed on to the Bay area for the pick that became U. of Wisconsin’s 2nd leading scorer Trent Frederic and Sean Kuraly.
Rask has a career low sv% at .912 in 46 starts coming into tonight.
Jones has 49 games played, a sv% of .913
What do the numbers mean? Other than the two being fairly similar goalies this year? If you take a look at the quality start number, which Hockey-Reference.com defines as starts with a save percentage above league average as indicative of the goalie that is giving their team the best changes to win, Jones is the clear leader in that category. The inverse of that is the RBS or Really Bad Start, that being games with a sv% under .850, then you have a strong indication as to who is a more consistent goaltender this year as well. About the only argument you can make for Rask being the better goaltender of the two is that he is playing in a tougher conference this year. But even that is a very, very fuzzy bit of conjecture when you consider that he is playing on a team that allows many fewer shot per game than the Sharks.
For Bruins fans, don’t give up hope they have been better on the road this year than at home, and are still within the honeymoon period with their new coach.
Gustav Nyquist of the Detroit Red Wings was suspended six games for this hit.
Here’s how he defended himself from his actual transcript:
10: “Dennis Wideman said getting suspended was a great way to spend time with family without the distractions of work.”
9: “I was having flashbacks about all the rats in The Joe and well, Spurgeon’s about the right size.”
8: “He whispered ‘You’re by Bieber and I’m Chris Pronger’ when he mashed me into the glass.”
7: “Chris Simon bet me his investment with Bernie Madoff I couldn’t beat his biggest suspension.”
6: “I was kinda hoping if I got suspended for something stupid enough no one would notice how bad my numbers are this year.”
5: “Have you heard Zetterberg’s ‘When I was your age!’ stories? You’d do anything for some time away from them too.”
4: “Guys, come on, he said Koivu was better than Datsyuk!”
3: “Coach said if take the heat off of how bad we are for a couple day I can pick my linemates for the first ten games next year. Assuming he’s here that is. ”
2: “Spurgeon said he was taller than me and I was just trying to knock some sense into him.”
1.4: “I was actually hoping for a longer suspension so i didn’t have to be on the ice when the Wings were mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.”
1: “I’m not sure why you’re suspending me, Abdelkator does stuff like that four times a month without a call from you guys.”
The Julien firing, Colorado Avalanche, Mike Illich, expansion and relocation, New York Islanders, Garth Snow and more. Don’t forget to let us know what you think and want to have us discuss next on Twitter @TheOffWing and @PuckSage
I’ll open the dance by stating the obvious; unless Krejci or Bergeron is being moved out, Duchene is entirely the wrong guy for the Boston Bruins. Not for anything that he is, but for what he isn’t; and that’s better (when healthy) than Krejci or Bergeron. He probably will put up more points on a playoff quality team, but he’s not the topic of discussion.
I like Gabriel Landeskog. He’s a very solid player. He’s physical, he’s willing, he plays in all three zones at at least a passable level. He’s been pretty healthy over the course of his NHL. He’s put together three straight seasons with more than 20 goals. He’s even the captain, named so at a ludicrously young age.
Why is he probably not the best available winger? That’s easy, I can name one who has very similar physical attributes, is faster, meaner, and has something to prove.
Here’s the tale of the tape:
Career goals per game: Landeskog: 0.278 vs Winger X: 0.312
Hits per game (2011-present): Landeskog: 2.2 Winger X: 2.6
Goals by strength: Landeskog: 80 ES, 27PP 4SH 16 1stG 4OTG 16GWG Winger X: 94ES 16PPG 4SHG 22 1stG 3 OTG 19 GWG
Shot attempt %: Landeskog 49.71% vs Winger X 50.64%
Goals per 60: Landeskog 0.89 Winger X 1.05
Minor penalties drawn per 60: Landeskog 0.94 vs Winger X 1.21
SHTOI/G: Landeskog and Winger X 1:04
TOI/GP: Landeskog 18:47 vs Winger X 19:31
Cap hit next year: Winger X is $321,429 less expensive.
Why did I pick the stats I did? Partly because the biggest need from a winger would be goals, followed by physicality. And because any player that is going to survive in Boston will need to be able to contribute in all three zones. In some people’s minds Winger X has a few marks against him. On his first team, in a city not very friendly to the melanin blessed, he had a reputation for trouble making which may have spilled over to his current team. On balance, none of the accusations in either city have ever been proved in court. And of course of the two, Winger X is the one who put together a 30 goal season at all, much less while under 21.
I finally return to my favorite feature column.
If I told you in September that
- on 2/12 there would be three teams in playoff spots, including the Canadiens, Senators, and Leafs with the Calgary Flames knocking on the door
- the best penalty kill in the NHL would belong to the Carolina Hurricanes.
- the Montreal Canadiens would be 2nd in times shorthanded, with 197 times through 57 games
- the Dallas Stars would not only have a worse powerplay than the Boston Bruins but be in the bottom third of the league
- the Columbus Blue Jackets would be the only team in February with zero shorthanded goals allowed.
- three of the top five NHL teams in five on five goals for would be outside the the playoffs
- nearly one quarter of the teams holding a playoff spot including the Saint Louis Blues, Boston Bruins, Ottawa Senators would have an even or negative goal differential.
- Erik Karlsson of the Ottawa Senators would be tied for second in blocked shots per game.
- Brayden Schenn would lead the NHL in powerplay goals
- that Sidney Crosby would tied for 86th in powerplay assists
- Jeff Carter would lead his team and the NHL in game winning goals, including one third of the tallies for the Kings
- three of the top five rookies in the NHL in scoring would all play on one team: Mitchell Marner, Auston Matthews, and William Nylander
- Peter Budaj would have his best career save percentage, the Kings in a playoff position, 26 wins, and the lead in shutouts.
- two goalies would hold 30 win seasons, Devan Dubnyk and Sergei Bobrovsky, in less than 45 games played and also both be in the top 5 in total saves.
If I told you any of this in September would you have believed me?
Look for the next episode of Two Man Forecheck soon!
We’ll talk: Mike Illitch and his legacy, Claude Julien, expansion, the New York Islanders and more. Give my co-host @TheOffWing a follow and catch up on what he’s writing at TheOffWing.com .
Earlier today Matt Kalman tweeted a quote of Don Sweeney from his press conference after having fired the all time winningest coach in the history of one of the oldest franchisees in the NHL.
There’s numerous possible translations of this nearly coherent, almost cogent sting of words.
Claude Julien wasn’t my guy. I decided to put someone I’m more likely to sit down and have a beer with in place.
I went to Harvard. What’s happening now is irrelevant because I’m smart enough to see the path forward and because I went to Harvard, I’m completely capable of dragging this franchise in the direction I want it to go regardless of what everyone else who didn’t go to Harvard thinks.
Julien refused to give into my wanting to help him make every decision from what color socks to where in the morning to who gets played each night and each shift, and the food on the plane. Cassidy on the other hand proved he’s a good lapdog when he was in Providence and I promised him then if he kept licking my hand just right I’d get him back to the NHL even though his previous stint in the big times was about Steve Kasper worthy.
If Julien was half as good as he thinks he is, he’d be able to turn any collection of players into an NHL playoff appearance. Clearly his reputation is over blow, and since I played far more time in the NHL than he ever did, I know the game better than him and he’s not using the high quality assets I’ve assigned him to their fullest.
Be glad this is recorded and not done live. I start the podcast with something you probably never thought you’d hear me say. We jump into the Red Wings and if they are doing their fans a disservice We talk about the right way to build the Vegas Golden Knights given the UFA class, and more.
Less than twenty four hours after Sweeney spoke during game one of the Beanpot about committing to building the team the right way the dynamic duo announce they have relieved Claude Julien of his coaching duties.
In letting go of the Jack Adams award winner they flush the longest tenured coach in the NHL. By stropping the blade on Julien’s throat Sweeney and Neely clearly hope the cache they haven carried as players will allow them to escape blame (and unemployment) for a roster that is filled with underperformance and just plain bad hockey players.
Shuffling along at the front of the pack of underachieving players is David Krejci, who is slightly under last year’s points pace but has had a 16 point swing in goal differential. Tikka Rask who had an aggressively mediocre save percentage of. 915 last year has ebbed still lower to. 911 this year. Matt Beleskey has dried up and isn’t even a fraction of the barely league average player he was when he was signed. Jimmy Hayes is on pace to put up roughly one quarter of last year’s numbers.
Somehow the dynamic duo thought it would be a great idea to bring in Riley Nash a player of such stupendous and prodigious talent he had trouble staying on the roster of the woe begotten Carolina Hurricanes. He’s been such a stunning success his goal differential is worse than his career average. John Michael-Liles probably the least effective veteran to grace this team’s blue line since Joe Corvo. Joe Corvo. Joe Corvo. Instead of reupping with the adequate and reliable Gustavsson, they brought back injury plagued Khudobin.
On top of the fiasco that is there off season roster moves they have likely alienated top players still on the roster. Patrice Bergeron came out in defense of his now former coach, as did Marchand, as did Chara. That’s the physical and emotional catalyst of this team.
Don Sweeney and Cam Neely not only made a foolish move to cover their own assets, it was likely unneeded as I know of no one with vision acute enough to cause then embarrassment.